Hurricane Preparedness: 2011 Season Predictions

With Hurricane season—June 1 through November 30—just around the corner, we wanted to take some time to address the recent forecasts. Of course, weather forecasts are what they are— predictions. But, at More Prepared, we believe it's better to have a general idea of what you'll be up against than no idea at all.

So, what's in store for this season? According to Philip J. Klotzbach, William M. Gray, and their associates at Colorado State University, there's a lot in store for this hurricane season:

• 16 named storms
• 9 of them becoming hurricanes
• 5 of them major hurricanes

Which is a relatively active season compared to the average season:

• 9.6 named storms
• 5.9 of them becoming hurricanes
• 2.3 of them becoming major hurricanes

However, while forecasts indicate a busy season, this isn't surprising. Any season when there is no expected El Nino, the forecasts are higher. Basically, if there is an El Nino, it reduces the strength of the westerlies, which reduces the strength of any potential storms.

How much stock you put in these forecasts is really up to you. It's easy rag on the weatherman. He's an easy target in a largely unpredictable industry. Keep in mind, though, that last season—which was predicted to be busy—saw 19 named storms, 4 more than its April prediction of 15.

The closer we get to hurricane season, the more accurate the predictions will become. So, with that in mind, we encourage all of our visitors to get a refresher in hurricane preparedness and maintain up-to-date emergency kits.